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Executive Summary – TeamLease Employment Outlook Report (Q2 FY 2011-12)
à The July-September 2011 quarter is characterized by strong indicators of stability in the Employment market: a flat Employment Outlook Index growth rate (no change) and a marginal drop (single percent point) in growth for the Business Outlook Index. While the overall trends are likely to stabilize further from the incremental changes witnessed last quarter, cities and sectors may not faithfully replicate these trends.
à In the midst of a more or less stable market mood, a few sectors display signs of correction. IT and ITeS are brought down – (4 percent points each) – from the dizzying growth rates in Employment sentiment of the past few quarters. This, however, is not significant enough to lower the already high levels these indices have reached. Health & Pharma makes a smart, 5 point recovery from the significant 8 point drop it had experienced during the previous quarter.
à But for an incremental, 4 percent point drop in the Business Outlook for Hyderabad and a marginal, 3 percent point increase in the Business Outlook for Ahmedabad, city trends stay loyal to the subdued growth pattern of the previous quarter. This aspect points to geographical uniformity in sentiment trends – trend growth seems to have stabilized at a city-level.
à At 20 percent points for Tier-2 cities and 10 percent points for Tier-3 towns, hiring intent for non-metro geographies hits a glass ceiling. Past growth trends for these geographies have been in single digits and slow, indicating that business desire to tap into the labour pools in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities/towns might not have met with great success. Intent to hire in metros, on the other hand, sees a handsome growth of 2 percent points and rides high at 91 percent.
à Junior-level profiles steal the limelight from across all other hierarchical levels with a strong, 3 percent growth to up hiring intent to 67 percent this quarter. This segment shows the highest and the fastest growing intent to hire and beats the 1 percent point growth that Fresh Graduate and Senior level profiles have managed to garner. The Middle-level segment experiences a single percent negative growth. The rather tepid performances by various profiles do not rock the boat, however – hiring intent is quite uniformly distributed across hierarchy.
à A simple trend-line analysis forecasts that overall Employment and Business Outlook trends are flattening over the next two quarters after many quarters of mostly upward growth. Observations accompanying the analysis also highlight index movement directions that are indicative of an impending sentiment slowdown. City specific trends vary, however, and a few surprises are likely in store.
India, July2011: TeamLease Services Private Limited, India’s largest staffing company, today released its latest Employment Outlook Report for the period July-Sep 2011 (Q2 FY 2011-12).
According to the report, the July-September 2011 quarter seems to be have moderated as compared to the earlier quarters when employment and business outlook grew at a fast clip.The report also states that the
business outlook is an alternating pace of positive growth over the past 6 quarters. This alternating rate of growth in sentiment has resulted in a gradually declining trend and sees a small, single point dip for the quarter in study currently. The current dip, on its own, may not hold much evidence of an impending fall in sentiment. The gradual flattening of the trend does, however, point to a likely downward movement.
It could also be observed that the employment outlook trend-line is flattening over the past many quarters. However, the appreciable sentiment uptick over the last quarter and the less flat nature of this index’s movement – relative to the Business Outlook Index – might mean there is still time to go before the employment index starts to fall.This may not mean that individual cities and sectors will likely have downward movement of indices, the report states.
SaysSangeetaLala, V-P, TeamLease Services, “Overall the market fundamentals are strong, but various developments in the past month like hike in interest rates, inflation, increase in fuel prices, global concerns, etc. seem to have dampened the spirit, at least for the immediate quarter. This has resulted in a flat outlook, which is better than a dip.The coming quarter will be stable despite a marginal drop in the business outlook index.”
TeamLease releases the Employment Outlook Report every quarter after a survey conducted with HR managers and senior management of leading companies in India. The study, which covered 640 companies in the latest round, focuses on the employment growth potential, the business outlook and hiring forecasts with relation to the location and the company profile. The report serves as a reference manual to corporate houses to understand the employment trend in the present market scenario at major cities across the country. TeamLease has commissioned noted analytics solutions provider inTouch Analytics (www.be-in-touch.com)to conduct the study.
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