Commodity updates:

THE DAY SO FAR INDICES UPDATES
An action pack week ahead with FOMC rate decision and a slew of  data releases from China amid global economic worries. Gold was on a record breaking spree topping 1700 an ounce while riskier assets crashed on twin debt problem. Lingering debt problems in Euro Zone and downgrade of US’ credit ratings by Standard and Poor were weighing on investor’s sentiments. ECB’s bond buying program and Group of
Seven nations assurance to take necessary action to ensure stability and liquidity in the financial markets pacified markets to some extent.
Looking ahead, Chinese inflation, industrial production and retail sales to be released tomorrow will be closely watched. While inflation in the world’s second largest economy has be alarmingly, the economy have been doing well achieving a growth rate of 9.5 per cent in the second quarter,  despite monetary tightening. Forecast show that inflation is seen to remain at 6.4 percent in July while industrial
production might have expanded at a slower pace of 14.60% on an YoY basis. Later, US FOMC rate announcement at 23:45IST  is expected to keep the market on tenterhook.
EVENT IN FOCUS
     Date/ Time Economic Events/Data Releases for the week ending 12
Aug  2011
Period Forecast Actual  Previous
(Revised)
Mon, 08 Aug 14:00 Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence  AUG  3.4  13.4  5.3
Tue, 09 Aug 07:30 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) JUL 6.40%   6.40%
 07:30 China Industrial Production (YoY) JUL 14.60% 15.10%
 07:30 China Retail Sales (YoY)  JUL 17.70%  17.70%
 11:30  Germany Trade Balance  JUN  14.0B  14.8B
 21:30 DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook AUG 102.5
 21:30  DOE Short-Term NatGas Outlook  AUG  12.18
 23:45 US FOMC Rate Decision  9-Aug 0.25%  0.25%
Wed, 10 Aug 07:30  China Trade Balance (USD)  JUL  $27.40B  $22.27B
11:30 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) JUL F 0.40%  0.40%
 19:30  US Wholesale Inventories  JUN  1.00%  1.80%
 20:00 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 5-Aug   950K
23:30 US Monthly Budget Statement JUL -$140.0B -$43.1B
Thu, 11 Aug11:30 Germany Wholesale Price Index (MoM) JUL   -0.60%
 13:30  ECB Publishes Aug. Monthly Report
 18:00 US Trade Balance JUN -$47.5B -$50.2B
 18:00  US Initial Jobless Claims  5-Aug  400K
20:00 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 5-Aug   44
Fri, 12 Aug 11:00 India Industrial Production YoY JUN 5.80% 5.60%
 14:30 Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa (MoM) JUN 0.10%  0.10%
 18:00  US Advance Retail Sales  JUL  0.40%  0.10%
 19:25 US U. of Michigan Confidence AUG P 63.2  63.7
 19:30 US Business Inventories JUN 0.60% 1.00%
     

on
                                    Technical Commentary
Technical Levels
R3  25330/25640
R2  25120/25240
R1  25000-50
Pivot 24870
S1  24800-770
S2  24690/24600
S3  24540/23400

 

GOLD mini
mcx Sep
Prices are likely to hold initially 25060 region on upside for a brief
pull back off before resuming the uptrend. However, rise above the
same expect prices continue to rally towards 25120  initially and
later towards 25240/25330. Conversely, if prices break below
24750, expect a corrective sell off towards 24690/650 initially ,
then 24540.
                                    Technical Commentary
Technical Levels
R3  64200/68400
R2  61500/62500
R1  60600
Pivot 60000
S1  59300/58100
S2  57700
S3  56500/55800

SILVER mini
mcx August
Dips to 59350 are likely to invite bargain hunting  that could lift
prices to 60740. However, look for sustained trades above 60000
before continuing with the upward trajectory. Direct fall below
58700 should call for 57000 or even 56000. Overall, a choppy day is
anticipated.

CRUDEOIL
ncdex/mcx August
Broad outlook remain negative for the day as long as 3870 region
caps upside and expect prices to come down towards 3770 intially
and then 3730.  But major sell off is favoured only if the prices
consistently trades below 3700 and may find support at 3630/3540.
A direct rise above 3870 would be a positive signal.
 
                                    Technical Commentary
Technical Levels
R3  185/187/189
R2  182.5/184
R1  178.50/180
Pivot 174.50
S1  172
S2  169/167
S3  164/160

NATURAL GAS
mcx August
Even prices have rooms for a drop till 169/160,  for intraday,  prices
are likely to hold the level of 172 for a corrective pullbacks towards
178 before the next swing lower. Break below 172 may drag down
prices to 169 or even more.